Professor Stephen Walt with Nguyen Anh Tuan, Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the Boston Global Forum.
By Philip Hamilton
(BGF) – The dispute between Russia and Ukraine is currently the focus of extensive international debate. In an effort to clarify the reasons for Russia’s incursion into the Crimea region of Ukraine, as well as propose potential solutions to the conflict, Professor Stephen Walt, the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, gave a talk on the situation in Ukraine at the Harvard Club.
A key to unraveling the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Crimea is understanding the reasons for Russia’s actions in the region. According to Professor Walt, the current situation in the Ukraine is rooted in Russia’s history. Historically, Russia has been invaded on numerous occasions, including by Napoleon, Germany in World War I, and then again by Germany in World War II. These experiences have led Russia to have a heightened sensitivity to the actions of its neighbors. What is more, Russia has long felt that the U.S. has advocated the steady movement of western institutions into its sphere of influence, especially following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia’s history of being invaded, its subsequent sensitivity to its neighbors, and its perception that the U.S. is moving western institutions further eastward towards Russia has led Russia to take, what are at times, extreme defensive actions. In particular, Professor Walt cites the Russian invasion of Georgia, which he argues was ultimately Russia’s way of sending a message that further eastward expansion by NATO was something Russia would resist by any means necessary.
How does this play into the current situation in Ukraine? Professor Walt argues that we need to recognize these historical antecedents and conceptualize the situation in Ukraine as a geopolitical conflict. Russia’s actions are not motivated by economic strategies or even domestic political pressures. Rather, Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine are a defensive reaction.
Looking back to the origin of the Ukrainian uprisings, Professor Walt noted: “there was an EU economic plan which Putin didn’t like so he upped the ante by offering Yanukovych, it’s previous leader, a better deal: more money, fewer terms, etcetera and probably leaned on him in some other ways. Yanukovych then essentially erased the EU plan, took the Russian plan, and that was one of many things, including his own incompetence and corruption, that started the uprisings against him in Ukraine.” The U.S. response to the Ukrainian uprisings, however, did not help ease the tensions in the region. Rather, the U.S. clearly favored the demonstrators thereby reinforcing the perception in Moscow that the U.S. was trying to shape events in the region. Thus, in reaction, Russia utilized the means it viewed as necessary to exert control in Ukraine and stave off western intrusions in its sphere of influence.
Moving forward, Professor Walt is not optimistic that the conflict will be resolved. However, he made two suggestions for how the U.S. should handle the conflict. Firstly, he proposed that the U.S. defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Ideally this would include Crimea but he does not feel that including Crimea is absolutely necessary. Importantly, U.S. efforts to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine should discourage further Russian incursions in Eastern Ukraine.
Secondly, Professor Walt suggested that the U.S. re-establish Ukraine’s neutrality. In essence, this means that “Ukraine will be a buffer state between east and west – it will not become part of NATO, it might at some point down the road have an association with the European Union…it will not be part of the Russian sphere of influence, it will not be part of our sphere of influence.” Using Ukraine as a neutral buffer zone between the east and west is “better for us, it’s ultimately better for the Ukrainians because if they start heading towards the west Russia will do lots of things to hurt them, and ultimately that’s better for Russia because dividing up Ukraine will be a source of much trouble between us and the Russians.” Furthermore, the U.S. may even want to go so far as to provide reassurances to Russia that the U.S. is not currently attempting, nor will it attempt in the future, to incorporate Ukraine into the west.
In many ways, the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia is difficult for the U.S. The U.S. does not have an extensive history of being invaded. However, Professor Walt argues that the U.S. must make some effort to empathize with Russia, even if it does not fully understand and certainly does not support Russia’s actions: “They, the Russians, have a view of how we got into this and what’s at stake and we’re not showing any sort of empathy for what they’re doing – we don’t have to like what they’ve done but we at least ought to be trying to understand what their view of it is.”
Additionally, Russia has a much deeper interest in what happens in Ukraine. Thus, the U.S. and Europe must be aware of Russia’s commitment to this conflict because Russia is willing to pay a much higher price to get what it wants in the Ukraine than the U.S. or Europe. In fact, the failure of the U.S. to realize that Russia would react in the manner it has to the events in Ukraine is a significant failure. However, despite the fact that Russia may have a deeper interest in what happens in Ukraine, the U.S. must not accept a scenario in which Ukraine falls under Russia’s influence to a point where Ukraine is barred by Russia from having economic relations with the U.S. and Europe – that would be an entirely unacceptable scenario.
While the U.S. and Russia are at odds over the conflict in Ukraine, Professor Walt emphasizes that we must not let the relations between the U.S. and Russia deteriorate to the point where they cannot agree on key issues such as Iran, Syria, and China. Efforts must be made to find the minimum requirements necessary to satisfy both the U.S. and Russia in order to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and salvage the U.S.-Russian relationship. Although the U.S. may have failed to adequately understand and anticipate Russia’s reaction to the situation in Ukraine, the understanding provided by Professor Walt can certainly go a long way towards guiding the U.S. policy regarding the conflict in Ukraine going forward.